Friday, September 30, 2011
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Monday, September 26, 2011
Saturday, September 24, 2011
self-immolation in POLAND, I hope it will teach Tusk something
I thought that such things happen only in Tunisia.
http://arnie.salon24.pl/346031,pelna-tresc-listu-andrzeja-z-do-donalda-tuska-aktualizacja
you can get traanslation into English by google
http://arnie.salon24.pl/346031,pelna-tresc-listu-andrzeja-z-do-donalda-tuska-aktualizacja
you can get traanslation into English by google
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
buying GBP/usd 1.5492
after this twist $ should be much weaker. It was opposite. I prefer GBP to euro.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Sunday, September 18, 2011
weekend reading
During the
weekend I spent some time reading some so “called research” from major banks.
One was from UBS about something like “Euro should not exist”, I suggest producing
something more attention catching ” UBS
should not exist”. I would surely promote UBS research. Another was from
Citibank, by Willem Buiter dated 9 September “Global Economics View The future
of the euro area: “, again about the default in Euro Zone. A lot of garbage.
Why waste of time to read , or more - to
produce this crap.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Thursday, September 15, 2011
UBS Experts in selfpromotion and marketing
http://www.ubs.com/ Experts in selfpromotion and marketing !!!
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Europe will not survive
Europe will not survive the disintegration of the euro area - Jacek Rostowski warned today in the European Parliament. The finance minister also cited the " Polish bank president" who had told him that he fears of war and "seriously ponders to get a green card for children in the United States."
Hungarian alternative. HUF looses to all currencies
on these proposals of the its government , that the losses from loans in CHF be transferred to the banks. Orban's is a revolutionary proposal. Poland is in a very similar situation. Tusk should seriously consider similar steps before it's too late. Banks in Poland are still in the hands of foreigners -and they drove the mortgage lending in CHF.
We can not afford to help banks, too late. Where was the NBP and the KNF in 2008? Europe can not afford to help banks. They are too big. And they destroy Europe. Just browse through today's news from France. see below posts.
We can not afford to help banks, too late. Where was the NBP and the KNF in 2008? Europe can not afford to help banks. They are too big. And they destroy Europe. Just browse through today's news from France. see below posts.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Investors Watch for Signs China Will Buy Italian Bonds
Italy's Finance Ministry has held talks with China's sovereign-wealth
fund and other Chinese officials in a bid to persuade Beijing to buy
large amounts of Italian bonds. More details
Investors Watch for Signs China Will Buy Italian Bonds
Investors Watch for Signs China Will Buy Italian Bonds
Hungary to Force Banks to Foot Franc Losses, Irking Austria
Bold step. Worth considering in Poland also, due to CHF/PLN exposure of similar proportions. And the world does not end. Adds more risks to the banking sector in EE
Hungary to Force Banks to Foot Franc Losses, Irking Austria
Hungary to Force Banks to Foot Franc Losses, Irking Austria
Monday, September 12, 2011
Free money! Honest -on forex robots etc
Old article but funny.
Free money! Honest
One error in article, " concurrency " has nearly nothing to do with currency.
Free money! Honest
One error in article, " concurrency " has nearly nothing to do with currency.
Watching CNBC
They woke up!! All the "experts" talk about problems in Europe. Europe exploding. CDS up. LIBOR, bond yields all strongly up.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Expect lousy start of the markets on Monday
After news of expectations of ratings downgrades of french banks. Sell Euro
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Friday, September 9, 2011
PLN bloodbath - intervention unsuccesful
USD/PLN gains again, now at 3.14. Investors are fleeing Poland
EUR/USD bears growling
They were sleeping for over 4 months. You hear that thay want the euro.usd at 1.1 .Make "logical" arguments. The
PLN crashes! Zloty is the weakest currency
Stocks are falling also. The mood after yesterdays events soured, No wonder investors are getting rid of most liquid market in CEE.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Sell Euro - Trichet gets angry.
I saw him first time in such state, with foam in his mouth . Pressure on Trichet is mounting with so much negative news and negative comments coming out from not only from Anglo-saxon press.
Reporter: What is your answer to German people and economists who want the return of the DM?
Trichet: You want answers?
Reporter: I think the Germans are entitled.
Trichet: You want answers? (SHOUTING)
Reporter: Germans want the truth! (SHOUTING)
Trichet: *You can’t handle the truth!* (SHOUTING)
[pauses]…
Trichet: Son, we live in a world that has prices, and those prices have to be guarded by men with bonds. Who’s gonna do it? You? You, Sylvia Wadhwa? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for Lehman Brothers, and you curse Ben Bernanke. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know. That Lehman’s collapse, while tragic, probably saved banks. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves banks. You don’t want the truth because deep down in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me on that committee, you need me on that committee. We use words like rate, target, expectation. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a profitline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of price stability that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said congratulations and went on your way. Otherwise I suggest you pick up a Greek bond, and suffer a haircut. Either way, I don’t give a damn what you think you are entitled to!
Japan Keeps Rates Near Zero; Won't Follow Swiss Move on Currency - WSJ.com
Japan Keeps Rates Near Zero; Won't Follow Swiss Move on Currency - WSJ.com
Japanese officials also have said that the yen foreign-exchange market is about three times the size of trading in the Swiss franc. One official said that putting a peg in place would require a country to either impose capital restrictions or effectively abandon its monetary policy.
Japanese officials also have said that the yen foreign-exchange market is about three times the size of trading in the Swiss franc. One official said that putting a peg in place would require a country to either impose capital restrictions or effectively abandon its monetary policy.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
QE3 is coming !!!!!!
All markets rebounding today on no logical reason, on low volume.The only reason is QE3 is coming!!!!!
This is only short term recovery
Stock markets performed very well. Especially Athens - up 8%. Oil recovered . Gold was even below 1800$.
But this good mood will not last long. Reality will come back soon.
I do not see anything what could push the markets higher.
But this good mood will not last long. Reality will come back soon.
I do not see anything what could push the markets higher.
Gold crashes again, otherwise not much action in the forex
Swissie trades flat around 1.2060 for the euro. Investors who lost so much on long CHF position, have to sell gold to cover their losses. Situation in Eurozone did not improve after Court decision . Euro at the same level as before. Greek yields are at record high.
CHF and GOLD
Yesterday's move by SNB had to cause powerful stoploss selling on all long positions in CHF. I wonder how forex brokers treated their customers. Gold prices indicate the position liquidation continues
Constitutional Court
The Constitutional Court ruled that the European rescue packages are compatible with the German constitution.
The Court reserved, however, that the Bundestag budget committee needs to have control over decisions on assistance with rescue packages.
Eur / USD shot up to 1.4150. There were no surprises. Euro returns to upward channel , may take a few days ...
The Court reserved, however, that the Bundestag budget committee needs to have control over decisions on assistance with rescue packages.
Eur / USD shot up to 1.4150. There were no surprises. Euro returns to upward channel , may take a few days ...
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
CHF / PLN my scenario
CHF / PLN my scenario
eur / chf will stick to only 1.20 thanks to SNB intervention, until SNB runs out of ammunition. The losses will be huge. SNB will buy Bundy and other bonds of eurozone with the euro from intervention. What will happen partial convertibility of CHF into gold?
Many Swiss will not like it? The opposition to this decision by SNB will be strong. Today's weakness Eur / PLN was caused by movement (= 26 sigma?) of the franc and stop losses.. Gold also lost to USD.Where to park money? For sure not in USD !!!!!!!
eur / chf will stick to only 1.20 thanks to SNB intervention, until SNB runs out of ammunition. The losses will be huge. SNB will buy Bundy and other bonds of eurozone with the euro from intervention. What will happen partial convertibility of CHF into gold?
Many Swiss will not like it? The opposition to this decision by SNB will be strong. Today's weakness Eur / PLN was caused by movement (= 26 sigma?) of the franc and stop losses.. Gold also lost to USD.Where to park money? For sure not in USD !!!!!!!
CHF smart move by SNB
Eur gained in minutes what lost in 3 months. SNB gained on reserves. I doubt 1.20 will hold for long.
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20110906/source/pre_20110906.en.pdf
They made it with one statement.
Market was "expecting " the move. I am selling eur/chf
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20110906/source/pre_20110906.en.pdf
They made it with one statement.
Market was "expecting " the move. I am selling eur/chf
CHF , AUD,CAD Expect more significant moves
With Swiss Treasury bills yield of -0.801% expect more flows to AUD, NZD non eurozone currencies PLN, CZK( my type)
CHF will become a new speculation target with
1.20. Expect money flow to PLN, CZK as well as NOK and SEK
Cityindex dax spikes to 11000
Clear error. opportunity to take some money from clients accounts with shorts. If you complain , you will loose anyway. It would take time to explain. Even if you open short at 11000 they promptly invalidate the trade and by mistake take a lot of money from your account. This is manipulation and going on for a long time
Monday, September 5, 2011
EUR/USD buy Reluctantly, Europe Inches Closer to a Fiscal Union - NYTimes.com
Reluctantly, Europe Inches Closer to a Fiscal Union - NYTimes.com
Finally some good will come out from that crisis.
Finally some good will come out from that crisis.
USD/JPY stable
Did not move for over a month,,. despite falls in DAX and S&P. It means we should slowly accumulate usd/jpy on dips. This is what I am doing
eur/usd as expected
No dramatic news from Europe. A lot of noise of Italy. Eurozone is not falling apart yet. Expect some recovery as US returns in a better mood
eur/pln 4.22
Performed well despite news from Europe. Held quite steady during the day at this level. No major news in Poland
Sunday, September 4, 2011
German endgame for EMU draws ever nearer - Telegraph
German endgame for EMU draws ever nearer - Telegraph
Are we to expect volatility on Wednesday? I doubt it...
Are we to expect volatility on Wednesday? I doubt it...
Saturday, September 3, 2011
eur/pln at the top
I am not expecting any more strength of euro. Their problems are overwhelming incomparison to what is going on here. Good time to short euro
saturday thoughts
All the ideas in this blog arel based on my neural network in my head.
After dramatic Friday I do not feel bearish. Falls on eur/usd were small . I expect eur/usd to be very volatile during the next 3 days
After dramatic Friday I do not feel bearish. Falls on eur/usd were small . I expect eur/usd to be very volatile during the next 3 days
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